A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
